Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Vox.Com model

The Vox.Com model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 49.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 50.9%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.4%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Vox.Com model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Vox.Com model for Trump are thus 4.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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