Primary model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The Primary model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 52.5%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 5.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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