Results of a new poll carried out by EmersonEmerson were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
EmersonEmerson poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of respondents would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 25 and August 28. The sample size was 800 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they may include substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.8%. Relative to her numbers in the EmersonEmerson poll Clinton's poll average is 2.1 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the combined PollyVote is 2.5 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is negligible.