Results of a new poll administered by Monmouth were released. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Monmouth poll results
The results show that 48.0% of interviewees are going to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 26 to August 29 among 402 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-4.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Monmouth poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the combined PollyVote is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.