Franklin & Marshall released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
The results show that 47.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between August 25 and August 29. The sample size was 496 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-5.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.2 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.