Ohio: Negligible lead for Clinton in latest CBS News/YouGov poll
CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
In Ohio, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of participants are going to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 17 to August 19. A total of 997 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.9 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.3%. In comparison to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.