The Time-for-change model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.4%. Compared to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.