New CBS News/YouGov poll in Pennsylvania: Trump trails by a sustained margin
Results of a new poll conducted by CBS News/YouGov were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who replied, 45.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 30 to September 2 with 1091 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.1 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 54.9% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.4%. Compared to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 1.5 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is negligible.