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Methods widely agree on the election outcome


The combined PollyVote today predicts a national two-party vote share of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. Polly's component methods widely agree on who will be America's next president: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win.

Contrary to Polly's combined forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.5%.

Expectation polls predict a vote share of 53.3% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 49.5% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

With 54.2% in index models the vote share for the Democrats is noticeably low when compared to past election years. This is the lowest value at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, index models expected a vote share of 53.2% for Democratic candidate Barack Obama, in the end he reached 53.7%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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