Methods widely agree on the election outcome
The combined PollyVote today predicts a national two-party vote share of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. Polly's component methods widely agree on who will be America's next president: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win.
Contrary to Polly's combined forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.5%.
Expectation polls predict a vote share of 53.3% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 49.5% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
With 54.2% in index models the vote share for the Democrats is noticeably low when compared to past election years. This is the lowest value at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, index models expected a vote share of 53.2% for Democratic candidate Barack Obama, in the end he reached 53.7%.