Leading indicators model: Clinton with small lead
The Leading indicators model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.0%.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be regarded with caution, as they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.6%. Relative to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Leading indicators model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.