NBC-WSJ-Marist published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular value.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 3 to August 7 with 889 registered voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.3%. Relative to her numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.