Latest Electoral-cycle model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck

The Electoral-cycle model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

Single models may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.

The Electoral-cycle model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 4.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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