Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump
The Jérôme & Jérôme model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump obtaining 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 49.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.5 percentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
The Jérôme & Jérôme model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.1% and Trump 46.9% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.