Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 51.9% for Clinton, and 48.1% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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