Issue-index model: Trump trails by a clear margin

The Issue-index model is part of the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 56.6% for Clinton, and 43.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they can contain large errors. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Issue-index index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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