FOX released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
FOX poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of respondents plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The phone poll was conducted from August 28 to August 30 with 1011 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 52.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. In comparison to numbers in the FOX poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.2 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.