Fiscal model model: Trump with small lead

The Fiscal model model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1.4 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 4.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.