Fair model shows Trump in the lead
The Fair model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Trump currently achieves 50.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 5.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Fair model.
The Fair model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 9.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.