DeSart model: Clinton tied with Trump
The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton and Trump will each gain 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on September 3, Clinton was predicted to gain only 48.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, as they may contain large biases. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.6% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.2 percentage points better in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.1% and Trump 46.9% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.2 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.