IBD released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
IBD poll results
Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between August 26 and September 1. The sample size was 861 participants. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.3%. Relative to numbers in the IBD poll Clinton's poll average is 1.7 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 2.5 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.