CBS News/YouGov poll in Pennsylvania: Trump behind by 8 points

CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

The results show that 45.0% of participants are going to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from August 30 to September 2, among a random sample of 1091 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.9% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.8%. Relative to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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