Results of a new national poll carried out by PPP were spread. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
PPP poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 26 to August 28. A total of 881 respondents responded. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 52.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the PPP poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 0.3 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.