Economist published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Economist poll results
The results show that 47.0% of respondents indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 27 to August 29, among a random sample of 1119 participants. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.2%. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Economist poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.3 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.