Virtual tie between Trump and Clinton in new Lewis-Beck & Tien model

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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