Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in latest Convention bump model
The Convention bump model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.8%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.5%. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Convention bump model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Convention bump model.