The Time-for-change model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.5%. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Time-for-change model.
The Time-for-change model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.