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Trial-heat model: Clinton with small lead


The Trial-heat model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they can include large biases. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 49.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points worse.

The Trial-heat model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the Trial-heat model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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