Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new Vox.Com model

The Vox.Com model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 50.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Vox.Com model Trump's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Vox.Com model for Trump are thus 4.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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