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Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new Big-issue index model

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The Big-issue model is included in the index models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be treated with caution, because they may contain substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.2%. This value is 2.9 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.

The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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