Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new Big-issue index model
The Big-issue model is included in the index models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be treated with caution, because they may contain substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other index models
If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.2%. This value is 2.9 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.
The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.