Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Electoral-cycle model
The Electoral-cycle model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be regarded with caution, because they can incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 50.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.9 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 4.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.