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Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Electoral-cycle model


The Electoral-cycle model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, because they can incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 50.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.9 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 4.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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