Primary model shows Trump in the lead

The Primary model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 47.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 52.5%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.5%. This value is 2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Primary model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Primary model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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