Polly the parrot currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.4% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump.
This is what Polly's component methods predict
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now leading with 50.5%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton. With a vote share of 49.5% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the polls. Clinton wins 26.4 percentage points.
When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is particularly high with 53.3% in expectation polls. Since 1996 they had not gained so many votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, expectation polls expected a vote share of 54.0% for Democratic candidate.