Pennsylvania: Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in new Emerson*Emerson* poll
EmersonEmerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
EmersonEmerson poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of interviewees will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 25 to August 28 among 800 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.4 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 53.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. Relative to her numbers in the EmersonEmerson poll Clinton's poll average is 1.7 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the PollyVote is 2.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.