Ohio: New CBS News/YouGov poll has Trump behind by 6 points
CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular interest.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 46.0% of respondents will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between August 17 and August 19. The sample size was 997 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.9 points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 52.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, the PollyVote is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.