EmersonEmerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have often gained similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is considered crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
EmersonEmerson poll results
According to the results, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and real estate developer Donald Trump can draw on the exact same level of support, each with 43.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from August 25 to August 27 among 800 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.4 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.3%. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 2.3 percentage points worse in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.9% and Trump 48.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1.9 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.