USA Today published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
USA Today poll results
The results show that 48.0% of participants would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 24 to August 29. A total of 1000 participants responded. The error margin is +/-3.0 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.3%. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the USA Today poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 0.7 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.