New Lockerbie model: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck

The Lockerbie model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 49.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.9 percentage points lower.

The Lockerbie model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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