Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania: Trump behind by 8 points
Monmouth released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between August 26 and August 29. The sample size was 402 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.9 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 53.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Monmouth poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.