Leading indicators model: Trump trails by a small margin

The Leading indicators model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 49.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.5 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the Leading indicators model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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