The Keys to the White House model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.5%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be regarded with caution, as they may include large biases. Instead of relying on results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.2%. In comparison to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Clinton's index model average is 2.7 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Keys to the White House model.