IBD/TIPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
IBD/TIPP poll results
According to the results, 44.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The phone poll was carried out from August 26 to September 1 with 887 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Trump at 47.7% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll Trump's poll average is 2.9 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.8% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.8 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.