Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead

The Issues and Leaders model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.9% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.1%.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models may include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.2%. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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