Issue-index model: Trump trails by a clear margin

The Issue-index model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 56.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 43.4%.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models often incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton is currently at 54.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.4 percentage points worse.

The Issue-index model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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