Fiscal model model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The Fiscal model model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.8%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 5.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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