Fair model: Clinton trails by a clear margin

The Fair model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 44.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 56.0%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Fair model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 9.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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