DeSart model: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.9%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Results vs. other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 50.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.