Bio-index model: Clinton with clear lead

The Bio-index model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 59.6% for Clinton, and 40.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of a single index model. Rather than relying on results from single index models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton currently achieves 54.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Bio-index index model Clinton's index model average is 5.4 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Bio-index model for Clinton are thus 6.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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