538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.1% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models can contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 49.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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