Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in latest Electoral-cycle model

The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.5%. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.

The Electoral-cycle model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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