Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in latest Electoral-cycle model
The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.5%. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.
The Electoral-cycle model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.