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Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new Vox.Com model


The Vox.Com model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 49.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 50.9%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Vox.Com model.

The Vox.Com model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Vox.Com model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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